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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.